거시경제

White-Collar AI Automation: 18 Months, 75% Unemployment Gap

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White-collar AI automation could eliminate most knowledge-sector jobs within 18 months, with Microsoft's AI chief warning of a 75% unemployment gap for office workers.

Eighteen months — that’s the window Microsoft’s AI chief put between now and a world where most white-collar AI automation is technically feasible. And when Anthropic’s CEO offered a nearly identical warning from the other side of the industry, the two predictions together stopped looking like competitive hype and started looking like a shared read on where the labor market is heading. Read more »

Strait of Hormuz Blocks $104 Oil and Breaks Global Trade

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Closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts 10 million barrels of daily oil flow, sending crude toward $104 and fracturing global trade routes overnight.

Ten million barrels of oil, gone every day. When U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered hostilities on February 28, 2026 and Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, global energy markets entered structural shock — Brent crude gained 30.72% in just three weeks as aviation, food, fertilizer, and European natural gas markets fractured simultaneously. The cascade is still in motion, and the final damage has not yet been tallied. Read more »